Tim Kathlina Swing Trades

TZA When To Add Shares Jan 21.avi

2011-01-21T15:20:00.000-08:00

Gerald Celente Predicts '08 Panic

2010-12-31T13:48:00.000-08:00

Get ready for the second comming great depression 2011-2012

See 20-30% correction in emerging economies: Marc Faber

2010-12-21T07:01:00.000-08:00

Emerging Markets front run US markets. Their pain, will not result in our gain.

SPY FORECAST DEC 19.avi

2010-12-19T14:10:00.000-08:00

Video explains market movement relationship to previous movements. Also provide trading update and forecast for 2011 and 2012.

10 Year 2010 Retrace complete, time for pull back Dec 18th

2010-12-18T13:18:00.000-08:00

Above we have a two year chart of the 10yr bond. The movement of the 10 year directly influences the S&P 500. Markets tend to move in same multiples of time and
distance.

As we see here, the 10yr has completed a 61% retrace of both the 2008 High to Low, and the 2010 High to Low. Each subsuqent Low to High was completed with a 38% retrace of that move. We can expect this pattern to continue, with a pull back to the 30 level, or 38% retrace of the 2010 Low to High.

Here on the SPY, we see the same repeated 38% retrace of Low to Highs over the last 2 years.

Should the pattern hold, we expect a pullback to the $115 area, or 38% retrace from current levels.

Keep in mind both the 10yr and S&P are in bear market up wedges within the larger 15 year secular Bear market that begin in the year 2000.

Despite the governments best efforts, then end results will be the same as the previous 120 year bull/bear cycles; a major decline of the indexes until the p/e ratio is below 10 and dividend rates are above 15%.

SPY EMMINENT RALLY ON HAND

2010-06-08T08:00:00.000-07:00

Markets repeat, always. Jan-Feb 45 calander days decline is now being repeated May-Jun 45 calander day decline. Result will be same, rally is at hand.

Both patterns are exactly the same, making new marginal lows just before taking off.

Get your longs ready to go!

DELL SETTING UP THE NEXT UP LEG!

2010-05-24T06:17:00.001-07:00

GOING LONG DELL. On Thursday last week Dell came out with over 50% growth, and firing on all cylinders. As you can see by the chart posted, the stock reaction was as expected, completing a 6 day pull back out of the counter trend swing low swing high move.

This sets up for investors and traders a like, many happy returns as DELL repeats the pattern JAN-FEB on its way to making new year highs.

GOLD 4 DAY COUNTER ON THE WAY

2010-05-24T06:03:00.001-07:00

GOLD will be making a 4-10 day counter trend over next 15 calender trading days. We expect the retrace in GLD able to make a 1/4 or 3/8 retrace as a 1st target.

HL is a good way to play this counter move, as has been in a nice definded trading range. The pivot area is 5.22, R1 5.35, R2 5.59, R3 5.79.

Traders should try to play the pivot to R2 level, and R1 to R3 as the trade develops.

GOLD GLD BULLS PAIN STRAIGHT AHEAD

2010-05-11T13:48:00.001-07:00

GOLD bugs are jumping for joy at the thought of a major up move from here based on a world wide economic collapse. However, so far what we see is nothing more then typical market action, 5 bull up wave, ending with a parabolic move.

Our first projected target of 115 was derived by taking the pull back ratio of the inverted head n shoulders pattern and adding that amount to the break-out neck line.

Our ending price target area of 125-130 is obtained by adding the pull back points of the 4th wave to the break-out area of the 5th wave.

The GLD has moved in the 90-99 up, 180-189 2nd move up, and now will end with another 90-99 up.

This last 90-99 time frame will conclude begining the week of May 19th thru 31st, to complete the up cycle. Once we get a few days of distribution to confirm the pattern, we will begin shorting GLD via the DGZ.

SPY RETRACE

2010-05-11T07:28:00.000-07:00

As noted over the weekend, we were approaching 15 calander days into the 1st down wave or a bull market pull back; unk which at the time. The expected support areas of 109, 105, 101 held, with the SPY hitting 105 on extreme high volume.

The standard retrace is 4-7 calander days, we are now on day 2. After the 4-7 day retrace period, we will then know for sure if we are in a bear market trend or this was just a fast bull correction. The absolute speed at which the correction and one day retrace took place, points to a bull market flush.

If we take the the length of the correction and add that to the neckline of the correction begining, we can project the next upside SPY target between 135 and 150

We are in cash pending the standard retrace, but lean towards the bull side of the trade as being the ultimate outcome.

Do The Chinese Share Our Optimism?

2010-04-27T19:40:00.001-07:00

Here we are looking at a weekly chart of the Shanghi Composite. Wall St. talking heads are fond of touting the China economy as a reason to be long US companies. As technical traders, we make our judgement based on the chart pattern and time pattern counting. One look at this chart and its clear the Chinese investor does not share the same positive outlook as the US investor.

We have an overbought index back in 2009 represented by the RSI top. This was exactly a 38% retrace of the 07-08 decline. We have now broken below the 200 day mva, confirming the bear trend and can assume the next leg will be completed around the 2300 level, or 38% retrace of the advance from the lows.

Experts say the markets are forward looking 6 months. Its clear that US companies are dependent on China to do well; what does this chart forecast over the next 6 months about the Chinese economy?

Maybe nothing, as there main street economy is more divested from their stock economy. But, we can deduct that this index is front running the US indexes by 6 months, thus forcasting for us things to come on Wall St going forward in 2010.

ZSL Short

2010-04-20T12:10:00.000-07:00

We agree with this view and are short $ZSL

SPY HOW MUCH TIME IS LEFT FOR BULLS?

2010-04-20T08:05:00.001-07:00

The above chart represents 100 years of S&P trading history market p/e multiple. Only two times in history have the bulls made big profits by going long above a 22 market multiple. As you can see, both times the bulls gave all that back and then some.

The market will bottom below a 10 multiple, always has. I look for that to occur sometime in back half of 2011 or early 2012. Keep in mind we are in a 20 year period of stock multiple contraction that began in 2000. The market cycles between expansion and contraction. 1980-2000 was 20 year expansion, 2000 to 2015-20 is multiple contraction.

As you know I believe firmly in the time/counting method. Stocks historically move in the same multiples of time windows and in even up/down ranges. This chart goes back to the March lows of 2009 and counts to each peak/valley move. You can see we were 90-100 days into the first leg, 180 days or double the 90 into 2nd leg, and now look to complete the trend around the 2nd week of May, or 90-100 days into the 3rd.

We are looking for a FIB retrace of 61% over the next 90-100 days getting the S&P down to 850-900 range. We will cover our shorts at that time on evidence of stabilization. The market should move into a sideways pattern the next 6 months setting up a bear rally for 2011-2012 to take us below a market multiple of 10.

KLIC Classic Double Top

2010-03-23T03:16:00.001-07:00

We traded KLIC from the zero number breakout at $7, up to the double top at $7.50. Why did we sale?

RSI went over bought, a new run at another high created the double top/lower high RSI, which is classic sale signal. Our trading rules dictate that we exit the shares. When do we buy again? Stock has bounced off a 38% retrace. While this pull back area can be a bottom, generally the time frame is not sufficent enough to warrant a favorable risk/reward entry. Stock is likely to move back to the 61% retrace level, of which we will re-examine at that time.

BYD Trade Example

2010-03-23T02:58:00.001-07:00

First what sets this move up is the broader index. We run a scan that pulls out the worst performing indexes that are beging to see cash flow into them. Once we have that, we identify strong tradable canidates by there trend reversal stock patterns. Next we count specific day vibration based on historical trading time frames of 30,60,90,120,180,etc. Once we had the double bottom confirmed in BYD, we simply put our buy above the 50 day at $8.27, and sold the shares at the 200 day resistance point. One last point, the March option expire puts/call favored a run at the $10 strike. So this trade had all the stars aligned for us.

SPY TIMING LOOK

2010-03-10T17:51:00.000-08:00

This chart is of 5 year weekly relative timing. The SPY begins to top out over the last 5 years at 1.22. Currently at 1.11, indicating the index has more room to the upside.

SPY is about to and likely to break above the yearly high to a new high. Resistance can be found at the 117 level, or 200 day on weekly. Notice the Standard Deviation bottom box on the chart. Currently SPY is within its mean price range; indicating no top yet.

EGLE BREAKOUT ALERT

2010-03-10T12:45:00.000-08:00

EGLE trades as part of our bottoms up Transportation Ship sector. Solid floor support at $5, has taken down the moving average resistance and is poised to move higher for a while. Strong buy up to $7.5.

AOB BREAKOUT ALERT

2010-03-10T12:33:00.001-08:00

Reporting earnings March 15th, we believe the technicals are inside information telling us AOB will beat earnings and raise guidance. Pennant formation resolving to the upside. MACD turning up, RSI 50 cross. Moving averages being taken down by the bulls, all point to good profits for longs.

This trades in the Drug/Bio sector, part of our bottoms up industry approved trading list.

CNAM SwingTrade March 4th

2010-03-05T02:00:00.000-08:00

This video shows example of how to trade news after a stock has already reacted.

BLDP Swing Trade Set UP Feb 16th

2010-02-15T22:04:00.001-08:00

BLDP sets up per the day/time vibration requirements. Stock did 15 days into swing high-swing low and 15 out to complete the 50+ day pull back. Options have calls/puts up at the 2.50 strike for the Feb 19 expire. Look for shares to gravitate higher this week and into March.

EGT BREAK OUT ALERT FEB 2ND

2010-02-02T01:35:00.001-08:00

We believe shares of EGT are poised to break higher based on daily patterns. Stock completed standard 60 day pull back within an over all uptrend; completed at the 200 day moving average. Stock then went 15 days up and 15 days down to complete the next leg higher, this time holding at the 50 day. The bullish buys continue to pay up in price. Look for a run at the zero number .30 to finally break out towards the .40-50c level, giving us a double your money trade.

DRL STRONG BUY SET UP FEB 2ND

2010-02-02T00:56:00.001-08:00

DRL-Doral Financial Corp is trades in the Mortgage banking sector. Companies shares use to trade north of $55 per share, now going for just over $3. As noted on weekly chart, shares are in clear turn around pattern up-trend channel. Stock has solid support at the 50 day on weekly, and has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on daily as the bulls have become more bullish. We believe the $4.40 area will still pose some resistance in the short run, but 3-6 months the stock is a double your money pick. The banking/mortgage sector trades at 3.26xs sales, DRL less then 2xs.

The Street.com TSCM Strong Buy

2010-01-25T21:27:00.000-08:00

We are issuing a strong buy on shares of TSCM, with 3-6 month price target of $5 and a 1 year price target of $10. TSCM is in the internet(consumer) sector, a sector that is part of our bottoms up industries investment thesis.

TSCM has 82 million in cash, no debt, and currently has total market cap of 77 million. GOOGLE on the other hand trades at 7xs their cash value. TSCM at 7xs cash value would be a $20 stock. This seems to aggresive as TSCM is certainly not on par with Google. However, giving it a conservative 2xs cash value, gets you 100% return from todays price.

RDI Buy Set-up Jan 19th Swing Trade

2010-01-18T22:12:00.001-08:00

RDI is in the movie/media sector that we have identified as a tradable sector that has underperformed the broader indexes. RDI has a V-bottom, bullish pennant formation that sets up in the near term for an potential explosive move higher. Currently we value the shares at $8 per share, not counting the potential Avatar revenues from overseas cinema operations.

NEXM JAN 12TH SWING TRADE

2010-01-12T21:37:00.000-08:00

Shares of NEXM we alerted to twitter/tkathlinastocks followers this morning as to the potential level 2 breakout above the zero number resistance. We first took down shares above the level 1 neckline of the inverted head-n-shoulders pattern. Our second purchase was at the level 2 break out; resulting in over 100% returns. To view video example of this trade go to:Video Example

S&P Trend Projections Jan 12th

2010-01-12T02:21:00.000-08:00

Current S&P Chart showing 5-wave struggle higher:

S&P Chart 2006-2007 Showing same 5-wave struggle, then drop after option expire 15th:

Chart of 1982 5-wave, resolved higher then went into trade channel:

2003 Chart, 5-wave struggle, exhaust into high, choppy downward pattern:

When trading, it is best to have an expectation of a trend; then when the trend materlizes, we are able to capture maxium profits because we are confident in our purchase. The most important trend to anticipate first, is the broad S&P trend.

The charts above show possible outcomes for the current S*P 5-wave struggle higher.

CXZ Technical Set Up Jan 8th

2010-01-08T20:12:00.000-08:00

CXZ Trades in the Clean Energy sector, a sector that is on fire! Our latest big gainer in this sector were shares of PEIX and currently BLDP. Now we are targeting shares of CXZ. CXZ is a pure technical play with a classic bottom of 100 or more days ago low, up-trending shares sitting at previous resistance and classic 50 RSI cross price acceleration level set-up. Near term target is top of trend channel at .50c. Fundies are of no value in shares of CXZ, this move is all techanical. This is a musical chairs play, don't get greedy.

BLDP Jan 8th SwingHigh/SwingLow Bottom trade

2010-01-08T06:21:00.000-08:00

Shares of BLDP present a possible bottom with a defined swing low-swing high move out of a bottom box. Look for strong push accross the $2 resistance in conjuction with the 50 RSI cross on weekly.

SSTI JAN 8TH BUYIN

2010-01-08T04:56:00.000-08:00

SSTI presents a possible buyin situation. Sitting at the high resistance number for the last 32 trades on the Kathlina scale, a two week advance and 50 RSI cross suggest possible new upleg higher.

RF Bottoms Up Industry Trade Jan 7th

2010-01-07T08:50:00.000-08:00

We are setting price target at $7.50. Up sloping MACD and RSI 50 cross. Stock is part of our bottoms up industries-financials; industries that have under performed the markets. We believe this industry will begin to outperform and the current leaders will underperform. Strong Buy.
Video Trades

ANO Set Up Jan 7th

2010-01-07T08:37:00.001-08:00

RSI 50 cross, W-bottom, upsloping MACD. All points to explosive returns.

INSP Strong Buy Jan 7th

2010-01-07T08:13:00.000-08:00

Infospace competes in the Internet/consumer space. An area that has underperformed the market advance that we are now targeting for trades. INSP has no debt, 200 million in cash and trades at less then 2xs sales. By contract, Google is trading above 8xs sales. So we believe fair value for INSP to be $20 or greater.

Video Trades

HBAN Swing Trade Jan 7th

2010-01-07T07:55:00.000-08:00

HBAN sets up for explosive move higher. Part of the Financial Industry that has underperformed the broader indexs; Now will begin to outperform. Stocks tend to accelerate out of a low volatility, 50 RSI cross. Calculate price targets from the moving average or breakout area. Us 25%,45%,60% as general rule for breakout target prices.

Video trade examples

TASR JAN 6TH DAY TRADE EXAMPLE

2010-01-06T14:54:00.000-08:00

Taser (TASR) came to our attention pre-market due to a news story about smartphone application. As you will see in the video, no matter what the news, must check the chart for proper trend. Then we estimated a price target from the 50-day moving average. The stock still had plenty of room to run to the target, so we took it down. After 30min, 25% profit target was reached.

To view video of this trade go to: http://www.youtube.com/user/timkathlina#p/u/0/zEQyipPR9mo